# Top 10 in Tech - What to know for Week ending June 20, 2025

Published: 19 June 2025
Canonical: https://www.top10in.tech/posts/week-ending-june-20-2025

## 1. SaaS METRIC OF THE WEEK

Is ARR dead? Not quite — [but it is evolving](https://www.notablecap.com/blog/is-arr-dead---or-just-evolving-a-look-at-consumption-based-pricing). In a world of usage-based pricing and variable billing, Notable argues ARR is no longer a reliable compass. It's being replaced by CARR, NDR, and cohort-based views.

Link: https://www.notablecap.com/blog/is-arr-dead---or-just-evolving-a-look-at-consumption-based-pricing

## 2. BENCHMARKS

Fresh from the [2025 BenchmarkIT Report](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/g7u9sek3etm8gc4g95w15/Benchmarkit-2025-SaaS-Performance-Full-Report.pdf?rlkey=wmau1ndeee99c0khmr8jukpy1&dl=0) (interactive version [available here](https://www.benchmarkit.ai/2025benchmarks)), median growth has dipped to 26% (down from [30% last year](https://www.top10in.tech/top-10-in-tech/top-10-in-tech-what-to-know-for-week-ending-october-25-2024)), while the top quartile remains at 50%. NRR down to 101%. New CAC is up 14%, but expansion ARR is now 40% of new ARR (50%+ for $50M+ companies). ARR per FTE? $300K at scale.

Link: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/g7u9sek3etm8gc4g95w15/Benchmarkit-2025-SaaS-Performance-Full-Report.pdf?rlkey=wmau1ndeee99c0khmr8jukpy1&dl=0

## 3. AI

Is AI adoption already hitting a wall? Ramp's [latest data](https://ramp.com/data/ai-index) suggests AI usage may be plateauing across expense categories, especially in SaaS and infra. The AI hype cycle may be cooling, at least in B2B wallets. Jason Lemkim breaks down [why this slowdown may be real](https://www.saastr.com/is-ai-penetration-slowing-down-ramp-says-possibly/) (and why it may be an illusion).

Link: https://ramp.com/data/ai-index

## 4. TRENDS

Every year since [2004](https://www.dropbox.com/s/k3gwaxmmclwpvf8/Internet_Trends__Nov_2004%20%281%29.pdf?dl=0), Mary Meeker (a [top-ranked VC](https://www.cbinsights.com/research/top-venture-capital-partners)) has been releasing an incredibly in-depth analysis of Internet Trends. She is back this year with another monster report - [336 slides long](https://www.bondcap.com/reports/tai) with, of course, a heavy focus on AI. Highlights: On the infrastructure side, the big six tech providers are spending $212B/year, and Enterprise AI revenue is insane (e.g., Cursor grew from $1M to $300M ARR in 2 years).

Link: https://www.dropbox.com/s/k3gwaxmmclwpvf8/Internet_Trends__Nov_2004%20%281%29.pdf?dl=0

## 5. AI GROWTH

Adding onto number 4 above is this insane headline/takeaway from a16z data: The median enterprise AI startup now [hits $2.1M ARR by Month 12](https://a16z.com/revenue-benchmarks-ai-apps/)! MEDIAN! Holy smokes, AI-native products are ramping faster than SaaS ever did. I need to try and muster up some AI revenue benchmarks.

Link: https://a16z.com/revenue-benchmarks-ai-apps/

## 6. EQUITY

Not all startup equity is equal, so I highly recommend any founder [read this three-part deep dive into the equity terms that matter.](https://femstreet.substack.com/p/keepingyoursliceofthepiepart1) 'Dilution' is one of the most feared words- so let's benchmark it - what is the average ownership percentage by SaaS Founders at time of IPO? [Sammy Abdullah takes a review](https://blossomstreetventures.medium.com/saas-founders-owned-14-at-ipo-85556724dff1), and the median level of founders' ownership is 14%, while the average is 23%, with VCs owning about 54% on average. Obviously, there is a significant difference between bootstrapped and non-bootstrapped data in this dataset. As an added bonus, take a read of this article from Heavybit that [discusses Cap Table management in relation to growth](https://www.heavybit.com/library/blog/founder-101-almost-everything-you-need-to-know-about-cap-table-management) and also [how to manage that Option Pool](https://venturehacks.com/option-pool-shuffle#market).

Link: https://femstreet.substack.com/p/keepingyoursliceofthepiepart1

## 7. M&A

According to Pitchbook, [Enterprise SaaS M&A activity held steady](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/8z35imw485l5eh09uxf2y/Q1_2025_Enterprise_SaaS_M_A_Review_19461.pdf?rlkey=sq80qk9sibsd7c0g5dilecggr&dl=0) in Q1 2025 with 210 deals, matching Q4 2024, but deal value fell nearly 25% QoQ to $29.1B. VC-backed targets stood out, hitting $14.6B in value—50% of the total. Top segments? ERP ($12.9B) and AP (up 108% YoY).

Link: https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/8z35imw485l5eh09uxf2y/Q1_2025_Enterprise_SaaS_M_A_Review_19461.pdf?rlkey=sq80qk9sibsd7c0g5dilecggr&dl=0

## 8. EARLY-STAGE

Is early-stage investing busted? [Chris Neumann digs into the shift](https://chrisneumann.com/archives/whats-going-on-with-early-stage-investing): more founders, fewer quality startups, and inflated expectations. The bar is higher, and investors are wary — with fewer seed deals closing and many angel syndicates pretty much on pause. Tomasz Tunguz also tracks [five years of YC trends](https://tomtunguz.com/yc-trends-last-five-years): batch sizes are down 54%, crypto is out, and AI dominates. The average valuation has doubled, but startups now raise less per dollar of valuation. It's leaner, more competitive, and very AI-heavy.

Link: https://chrisneumann.com/archives/whats-going-on-with-early-stage-investing

## 9. VALUATIONS

How do investors really value startups? [There is a bunch in here for your tech dictionaries, as this breakdown covers eight methods](https://www.thevccorner.com/p/8-startup-valuation-methods) from VC math to the Berkus Method and Scorecard Valuation (). Essential reading for any founder or operator raising capital (or negotiating their next round).

Link: https://www.thevccorner.com/p/8-startup-valuation-methods

## 10. CASE STUDY

[Founders Fund's $50M Fund I](https://www.generalist.com/p/founders-fund-1) (back in 2005) backed 17 startups—7 hit unicorn status. This retrospective dives into their contrarian bets (SpaceX, Palantir - also a Thiel Biz), the PayPal Mafia, early LP skepticism, and why conviction > consensus. Rare transparency on VC returns and bunch of misses too.

Link: https://www.generalist.com/p/founders-fund-1

## POD OF THE WEEK

Stijn Hendrikse has unearthed [a bunch of patterns that separate companies achieving explosive growth](https://open.spotify.com/episode/158YFEPwFcU8YVBjMtT441?si=LwWs-qbjQg6-yZUEeKIRqw&ajs_uid=cio_bea40b00d5ba01d6ba01&rm_cio=0d426f0c-ad27-4aa4-b209-006aefb301a8ed71&utm_campaign=Freshly+Squeeze+PLG+-+Newsletter+6.15.2025&utm_content=Freshly+Squeeze+PLG+-+Newsletter+6.15.2025&utm_medium=email_action&utm_source=customer.io&nd=1&dlsi=6e7f82779be44519) from those that plateau at $5-10M ARR.

Link: https://open.spotify.com/episode/158YFEPwFcU8YVBjMtT441?si=LwWs-qbjQg6-yZUEeKIRqw&ajs_uid=cio_bea40b00d5ba01d6ba01&rm_cio=0d426f0c-ad27-4aa4-b209-006aefb301a8ed71&utm_campaign=Freshly+Squeeze+PLG+-+Newsletter+6.15.2025&utm_content=Freshly+Squeeze+PLG+-+Newsletter+6.15.2025&utm_medium=email_action&utm_source=customer.io&nd=1&dlsi=6e7f82779be44519